The meeting that decides the US policy rate itself. The market moves at both the decision and the Chair's press conference.
Japan time (JST, winter)4:00 (press conference 4:30)
Japan time (JST, summer)3:00 (press conference 3:30)
Importance★★★
Frequency8x/year
Release date8 times a year, on day 2 of a 2-day meeting
Released byFederal Reserve Board (the Fed)
1A 30-second chat
JUDITHCan the dollar rise even after a rate cut is decided?
JADEIt can. If the rate cut was already expected and the press conference says "no rush for the next cut," the dollar can actually rise. Watch "what's next" more than the result
JUDITHThat's the middle of the night in Japan, right?
JADEIn winter, the result comes at 4 a.m. and the press conference at 4:30. Price can move a lot while you sleep, so decide in advance whether to hold positions overnight
2Just check this
1
Policy rate (federal funds rate target)
Hold, cut, or hike. Usually expected in advance
2
Statement and Chair's press conference
A hint about "what comes next." The market often reacts to this more than to the decision
3
Dot plot
Each member's rate forecast, released at the March, June, September and December meetings. It shows how many rate cuts are expected ahead
3How does the market move?
Price moves on the size of the gap vs. forecast, more than on whether the result is good or bad
▲ More hawkish than expectedHawkish (leaning to hikes, cautious on cuts) → US rates ↑ → stronger dollar, Nasdaq tends to fall
▼ More dovish than expectedDovish(leaning toward cuts)→ US rates ↓ → weaker dollar, Nasdaq tends to rise
These are common patterns. Depending on the news at the time, price can move the other way.
The direction is different every time. Right after the release, price can swing either way.
4Prop firm watch-outs
The FOMC is late at night to early morning Japan time (JST). The market can move sharply twice, at the decision and at the press conference, so going to sleep with open positions is risky. It is also just before the daily reset (7:00 a.m. in winter), so work out your loss line ahead of time.
FUNDED7 rules:Holding trades through a release is allowed, but opening a new large position right before a release is a no-go (Official FAQ）
Daily loss line:5% of the previous day's closing balance. Unrealized losses count too (Official FAQ）
The rules for not failing on data release days are in the illustrated rulebook Add us on LINE to get the rulebook and getting-started guide for free. We also hold a free Zoom intro session for beginners every Friday from 22:00
