A survey asking company managers "How's business?" Above 50 signals growth; below 50 signals shrinking.
Japan time (JST, winter)0:00 (next day)
Japan time (JST, summer)23:00
Importance★★★
FrequencyOnce a month each
Release dateManufacturing: 1st business day of each month / Services: 3rd business day
Released byInstitute for Supply Management (ISM)
1A 30-second chat
JUDITHWhat does "50" mean?
JADEIt's the balance between companies that said "things got better" and those that said "things got worse." If they are exactly half and half, it's 50
JUDITHManufacturing or services: which matters more?
JADEServices make up most of the US economy, so non-manufacturing matters too. But manufacturing comes out first at the start of the month, so it tends to set the mood for the month
2Just check this
1
The overall index and the 50 line
Above 50 means growth, below means shrinking. Pay special attention when it crosses 50
2
New orders
The amount of future work. Shows where the economy is heading
3
Prices (prices paid)
Costs companies pay. A leading sign of inflation
3How does the market move?
Price moves on the size of the gap vs. forecast, more than on whether the result is good or bad
▲ Stronger than expectedStrong economy → US rates ↑ → USD tends to rise (stocks may also be bought on growth hopes)
▼ Weaker than expectedWeak economy → US rates ↓ → USD tends to fall (stocks may also be sold on economic worries)
These are common patterns. Depending on the news at the time, price can move the other way.
The direction is different every time. Right after the release, price can swing either way.
4Prop firm watch-outs
It comes out at midnight Japan time (JST) (11pm in summer), so it often overlaps with late-night trading before bed. At the start of the month, big releases come one after another: manufacturing ISM, then ADP, then the US jobs report (NFP). Expect choppy moves in the first few days of the month and keep some room in your loss limit.
FUNDED7 rules:Holding trades through a release is allowed, but opening a new large position right before a release is a no-go (Official FAQ）
Daily loss line:5% of the previous day's closing balance. Unrealized losses count too (Official FAQ）
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