The economy's "report card," showing how much the whole US economy grew.
Japan time (JST, winter)22:30
Japan time (JST, summer)21:30
Importance★★★
FrequencyQuarterly
Release dateQuarterly (around the end of Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct)
Released byUS Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
1A 30-second chat
JUDITHIsn't GDP the biggest indicator?
JADEIt's the biggest in content, but it's quarterly, and jobs and spending numbers come out first, so it's partly expected already
JUDITHThen when does it move?
JADEWhen it's far off the forecast. Also, after the advance estimate it's revised twice (second and third estimates), so markets react most to the first, advance estimate
2Just check this
1
Real GDP (annualized, quarter-over-quarter)
The growth rate with price changes removed, converted to a yearly pace
2
Consumer spending
The biggest part of GDP. Shows whether the core is strong
3
GDP deflator
Price changes included in GDP
3How does the market move?
Price moves on the size of the gap vs. forecast, more than on whether the result is good or bad
▲ Stronger than expectedStrong growth → US rates ↑ → dollar tends to strengthen
▼ Weaker than expectedWeak growth → US rates ↓ → dollar tends to weaken (if recession fears rise, stocks also tend to be sold)
These are common patterns. Depending on the news at the time, price can move the other way.
The direction is different every time. Right after the release, price can swing either way.
4Prop firm watch-outs
The GDP advance estimate often lands in the same week as other data like PCE, sometimes even on the same day. When releases overlap, the direction is hard to read, so trade less and focus on protecting your loss line.
FUNDED7 rules:Holding trades through a release is allowed, but opening a new large position right before a release is a no-go (Official FAQ）
Daily loss line:5% of the previous day's closing balance. Unrealized losses count too (Official FAQ）
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